willitship.games · concept demo

Project Vermilion, when does it ship?

Monte Carlo forecast from the team's own issue-tracker history. 10,000 simulated futures, each one replaying real weekly throughput against the remaining backlog.

🔒️ Runs entirely in your browser. Your data never leaves this page.
85% confident ship date
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The date you can commit to. 85 of 100 simulated futures finish by here.
Even odds (50%)
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A coin flip. Never promise this date.
Near certain (95%)
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Plan cert and marketing from here.

Distribution of simulated ship dates

Share of 10,000 simulations finishing each week, drawn as a smoothed curve on a daily timeline

How it works. The simulation takes the last 16 weeks of completed issues from your tracker, the count of remaining issues, and a scope growth range for work discovered along the way. It then plays out thousands of possible futures by drawing random weeks from your team's real history until the backlog is empty. The answer is a probability distribution instead of a guess. Simulation resolution is weekly; finishes are treated as spread evenly within their week, and every readout on this page answers from that same curve.

Data table (weekly buckets)
Week endingSimulationsShareCumulative

This is a working concept with sample data. The real tool will read an export from JIRA, Linear, Asana, GitHub Issues, or Excel, and every calculation will stay on your machine, exactly like this page. No accounts, no uploads, no analytics, no cookies. If you run game productions and want this, tell me what it needs to do: hello@willitship.games

Sample data is a fictional 25-person team, co-dev partners included: 1,000 open issues, 16 weeks of throughput history, up to 20% scope discovery.